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Where the United States
Is Growing
Projected U. S. Population Changes 1990 - 2015
Powerpoint Presentation
The
Racial and Ethnic populations in the United States
have continued to grow dramatically. From 1990
to 2000, the total United States population grew
by 32.6 million persons, from 250 million to nearly
282 million, an increase of 13%. Seventy-three
percent of this growth (23.7 million) was by racial/ethnic
group populations. Furthermore, population projections
for 2000 to 2015 estimate that the racial and ethnic
composition of the United States will see more
dramatic change. Although we cannot be absolutely
certain about the future, population trends and
demographic data can assist the church to better
prepare for future ministry.
The General Council
on Ministries (GCOM) utilizes demographic information gathered by Woods and
Poole Economics, Inc., a respected demographic
research firm in Washington, DC. It uses U.S.
Census data and applies sophisticated trend
analysis to project population changes. The GCOM reviewed
1990 and 2000 U.S. Census population data along
with Woods and Poole population projections
Between
2000 and 2015, the United States population
is projected to grow by 44.8 million persons— or
a 15.9% increase. The racial and ethnic population
in the United States is forecasted to increase
by 33.6 million persons, while the European
American population will increase by
11.1 million. The percentage growth of racial/ethnic
populations will be three times greater than
the European American population. This means
that for every four additional persons in the
United States, three will be people of color.
In 1990 the racial/ethnic population composed
24.3% of the total population and by 2000 it
was 30%. By 2015 racial/ethnic persons will constitute
36% of the population. This means that persons
of color will be one of every three persons.
The growth rates of Asian Pacific American, Hispanic
American, and Native American populations will
be three to eleven times the European American
growth rate.
| Ethnic / Racial Group |
1990
Population |
2000
Population |
2015
Projected Population |
% Growth
(2000-2015) |
| European American |
188,712,065 |
197,557,101 |
208,702,000 |
5.6% |
| African American |
29,422,680 |
35,215,181 |
41,708,000 |
12.1% |
| Asian/Pacific American |
7,096,290 |
11,442,999 |
18,583,000 |
62.4% |
| Hispanic American |
22,587,214 |
35,654,351 |
55,187,000 |
54.8% |
| Native American |
1,804,565 |
2,354,716 |
2,817,000 |
19.6% |
| TOTALS |
249,622,814 |
282,224,348 |
326,997,000 |
15.9% |
There are regional variations in this growth
pattern. Some of the expected population changes
in each of the five United Methodist jurisdictions
are described on the following pages:
North
Central Jurisdiction
| • |
From 1990-2000 the population grew
from 50.6 million to 54.5 million persons
(7.7% growth rate); the 2015 the population
forecasted to be 59.8 million persons (9.7%
growth rate). |
| • |
The African American population grew
17% from 4.9 million in 1990 to 5.8 million
persons in 2000. It is projected to increase
another 15% for a 2015 population of 6.7
million. |
| • |
From
2000-2015 the Asian/Pacific American
population is expected to grow by 72%
from
1.2 million to nearly 2 million persons. |
| • |
From
2000-2015 the Hispanic American population
will increase by 54% from 2.7
million to 4.2 million persons. |
| • |
From
1990-2000 the Native American population
increased by 28% from 271,000
to 348,000. It is expected to grow to 411,000
by 2015. |
| • |
Between
2000-2015, the European Americans will
comprise 38% of the total population
growth. |
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Northeastern
Jurisdiction
| • |
From
1990-2000 the population grew from 58.8
million to 62.1 million persons
(5.7% growth rate); the 2015 population
forecast is 67 million persons (7.8% growth
rate). |
| • |
The
European American population in this
region decreased between 1990-2000
(from
46.2 million to 45.6 million) and will
decrease further during the next 15 years
(to 45 million). |
| • |
The
African American population is expected
to continue to increase. From
1990-2000 its population increased by 1.1
million persons (from 7 million to 8.1
million). By 2015 its population is expected
to be 9.2 million. |
| • |
Between
2000 and 2015 the Asian/Pacific American
population is expected to grow
by 75% from 2.6 million to 4.5 million
persons. |
| • |
The
Native American population grew by 37%
between 1990 and 2000 (from 125,000
to 171,000 persons). Its 2015 population
is estimated to be 179,000 persons. |
| • |
The Hispanic American population continues
to be the largest growth group. In 1990
it had just under 4 million persons; in
2000 its population was 5.6 million, and
by 2015 is projected to be 8.2 million
persons, a 46% increase). It is projected
to produce 53% of the region’s growth. |
| • |
The
total racial/ethnic population in the
region has grown from 21% in 1990
to 27% in 2000 and is projected to become
33% by 2015. |
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South
Central Jurisdiction
| • |
From 1990-2000 the population grew
from 37.5 million to 43.4 million persons
(16% growth rate); the 2015 population
forecast is 51.6 million persons (18.8%
growth rate). |
| • |
European Americans will continue to
be a majority of the population, however
their proportion of the total population
decreases (71% in 1990, 65% in 2000, and
58% in 2015). |
| • |
From 2000-2015 the African American
population is forecast to increase 18%
from 5.5 million to 6.1 million persons. |
| • |
From 2000-2015 the Asian/Pacific American
population is expected to grow by 81% from
913,000 to nearly 1.65 million persons. |
| • |
The Hispanic American population increased
by 2.9 million persons from 1990-2000 and
is projected to become 12.5 million (a
51% increase) by 2015. |
| • |
The Native American population will
increase by 26% from 667,000 in 2000 to
838,000 persons in 2015. |
| • |
European Americans will comprise 25%
of the total growth between 2000-2015. |
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Southeastern
Jurisdiction
| • |
From 1990-2000 the total population
grew from 51.1 million to 60.5 million
persons (18% growth rate); the 2015 population
forecast is 73 million persons (21% growth
rate). |
| • |
The
African American population grew by 2.5
millions persons (24% growth rate)
from
10.1 million to 12.6 million. By 2015 its
projected population will be 15.7 million
(25% growth rate). |
| • |
From
2000-2015 the Asian/Pacific American
population is expected to grow by 90%
from
1.1 million to 2.1 million persons. From
1990-2000 its population doubled. |
| • |
The Hispanic American population increased
by 2.4 million from 1990-2000 and is projected
to become 7.5 million persons (a 75% increase)
by 2015. |
| • |
The Native American population grew
by 41% between 1990-2000 from 189,000 to
266,000 persons and is expected to be 302,000
persons (a 13% growth rate) by 2015. |
| • |
European Americans will comprise 41%
of the total population growth between
2000-2015. Hispanic Americans and African
Americans comprise 26% and 25%, respectively. |
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Western Jurisdiction
| • |
From 1990-2000 the population grew
from 51.6 million to 61.6 million persons
(19.5% growth rate); it is the fastest
growing region of the nation with a 2015
population forecast of
80.5 million persons. This 30.5% growth
rate is double the national growth rate.
It will account for 24.6% of the national
population.
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While
racial/ethnic persons accounted for three
out of every four “new” persons
between 1990 and 2000, in the next 15 years
racial/ethnic persons will account for
four our of every five “new” persons. |
| • |
From 1990-2000, the African American
population increased from 2.7 million to
3.2 million persons, and its 2015 projected
population will be 3.8 million persons. |
| • |
From 1990-2000 the Asian/Pacific American
population increased from 3.9 million to
5.7 million persons and is expected to
grow by 63% to 9.3 million persons by 2015,
a growth rate of 63%. |
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From
1990-2000 the Hispanic American population
increased from 9.6 million to
14.7 million persons. This population group
is the most rapidly growing population
with a 74% growth rate to become a population
of 25.6 million persons by 2015. It will
compose almost 32% of the region’s
population. |
| • |
The European American proportion of
the population continues to decrease markedly.
In 1990 it was two-thirds of the population,
and in 2000 it was 60%. By 2015 it is expected
to become 50.4%, a slight majority. |
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Prepared by the
General Council on Ministries
Office of Research and Planning
601 West Riverview Avenue
Dayton, Ohio 45406-5543
Phone: (937) 227-9400, Fax: (937) 227-9407 |
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